Restarting the Economy

I really wish that the various politicians (President, Governors, Mayors, local Legislators) would stop claiming that “they are going to open the economy” in some form or fashion (phased or otherwise) at some date in the future. The concept of having a politician take credit for doing anything related to the economy just rankles me. The only thing these politicians are doing is removing the “shackles” they have placed on all of us so we can get back to doing what we do. So please Mr. Politician, do me a favor, and just state what you are doing: Taking off the government-imposed shackles so that “the people” can get back to work and thereby "the people" can save the economy from further politically induced destruction

The America Spirit has been hijacked!

American spirit hijacked? How is that possible? Who could do that? What does that even mean?

To answer that, one needs to ask yourself the following question: Where was American ingenuity and American entrepreneurship or for that matter the basic American will to fight, during this whole “shelter in place” COVID World we are all living thru? Answer: It wasn’t anywhere. It was hijacked!

As long as this Country has existed, one of the most important strengths that we Americans have exhibited, the one deeply American character attribute of the United States of America as a whole nation, is our ability as a one nation to overcome adversity. To deal with bad news or challenges. To accomplish the impossible. Whether it was the Revolutionary war, the two World Wars, 911, or you name it, Americans could always be trusted to do the impossible. To overcome the worst of the worst. The direst situations. To rise above. It’s because of the American spirit, American ingenuity, and the basic will to fight for what we believe in. Its in our DNA to fight for our rights, our country, our families, our lives. Americans can handle bad news. To utilize the power of perseverance over adversity. To be winners. We have always had the ability to “figure it out”, survive, and prosper.

But not now! Not in a COVID world. So why wasn’t that American spirit engaged to help fight and overcome the Corona pandemic? Where was “business” during all of this? For what’s been framed as a “War” with an invisible enemy, why weren’t everyday Americans part of the actual fight?  All across America we listened to the politicians and experts and simply surrendered to their directives. We laid down our arms without ever getting into the fight. Governments decided what to do and how to do it. The people in those governments having no real-world experience in running any business. And we went ahead and did exactly what they said. Shut down the entire economy, resultant unemployment of 30 million people, mass government financial intervention and bailing out, ruined people’s entire life’s work and savings, left people unable to feed their families and on and on the carnage continues.

Why weren’t Americans asked to join the fight as opposed to lay down and do nothing??? Why? Answer: Government doesn’t trust us. They think government is the most qualified to address COVID. And with that arrogance comes an even bigger government is even better equipped to handle COVID. So how did government address COVID-19? 1) Carpet bomb the entire economy into oblivion, then 2) create a massive financial government funded program to attempt to help the very economy they just destroyed, then at the end, 3) develop a government plan to re-start the very economy they destroyed. And the end result of this will be financial ruin for many coupled to a growing socialist state that has risen out of the ashes of COVID. This same group of politicians are directing a re-start without having any actual experience in the way business operates. For the final act here, we Americans are allowing politicians to tell us how best to go back to work. It went like this: destroy economy and thereby lives, bail out and continue bailing out while creating a welfare socialistic state, then botch up the recovery by having politicians develop and lead the effort to restart the economy.

What would fighting look like? Well its actually pretty simple. If the goal was to reduce the spread of COVID-19, then let’s get everyone off their sofas and into their businesses to actually fight!

Business should have been engaged at the very beginning. The question that should have been asked at the start of this was “HOW do we OPERATE OUR BUSINESS in a COVID world?” NOT, which business is essential and which is not? All business is essential. A diverse vibrant economy is essential to all. And certainly, every small business is essential to its owners for their very livelihood. Instead of dividing the country into essential and non-essential and then destroying all non-essential business, wouldn’t it have made more sense to say all are essential and develop operating parameters and regulations that give business owners a fighting chance to comply and thereby survive? I’m not saying that all business could have complied with strict COVID regulations, but at least the approach would be from a place of fighting for it. And we would have used the creative genius of all of America as opposed to bureaucrats and medical professionals determining survivors and losers. And in the end of the day as we re-enter return to work world, most of how we will operate will be just like that had we implemented at the beginning.

For sure a targeted approach to quarantine or shelter in place was needed, and will be needed, going forward as any component from the beginning of as part of a recovery plan. But only targeted at those most vulnerable which is pretty well studied group now. And for sure high density events would need serious modification from the "norm" to keep people at safe distances. But even that can be done if given a fighting chance to at least attempt to design the event to comply with social distancing.

In my 35-year business career, I learned that for the most part when looking for improvement, the person doing the job is the most qualified to talk about the job. And if properly motivated, that person can help to arrive at ways of doing the job even better. Someone watching from the sidelines doesn’t and frankly cannot always get it right. So why aren’t we talking to all businesses across the country and getting them to innovate solutions that best fit their business. So how would this happen? Well simple really. Businesses today operate under a variety of regulations. To survive and prosper, business must comply and adapt as new requirements emerge. For example, EPA requirements, OSHA requirements, banking, and tax code requirements cover four major regulatory standards that business must comply with to operate within the law. Why couldn’t we have added a new OSHA temporary standard for COVID that would require all businesses to conform or be shut down? Instead, we just shut them down. I am 100% confident that given a choice between shutting say your restaurant, hair salon, factory, retailer, or other small business, business owners would have rather had a fight in this battle and would have come up with reasonable compliant solutions.

Here’s what a partial set of business regulations specific to COVID-19 might have looked like. Please note that I am doing this sitting at a computer by myself so do not misconstrue this as complete and perfect. If brainstorming with a group of business leaders over a few hours, I am confident that the list would be better developed. This is really for illustration purposes only:

1.      Social distancing of 6’ at all times unless other germ containment is implemented.

2.      Masks at all times.

3.      Approved germ containment is a half face respirator to be worn at all times when social distancing of at least 6 feet is not possible.

4.      Hand sanitation to be undertaken every 30 minutes or sooner.

5.      For machine operators, wipe down and disinfect machine every 30 minutes.

6.      No sick workers under any circumstances on premises.

7.      Limit the number of people to one person per 150 sq. feet unless utilizing item 2 above.

8.      Hand cleaning and sanitation materials to be available for every 20 persons.

Examples:

Hair Salon: For the owner of a hair salon. If I was given a choice between shutdown my business and thereby destroy my life verses come up with measures designed by the actual business owner that comply with the COVID regulations, I can tell you that the owner would have innovated and came up with a viable solution. Oh, don’t get me wrong it might have been strange going into a hair salon where the stylist is wearing a half faced double respirator (not a simple string mask type) and the stations are all 6 feet apart, but it could have been done. The hair salon could have stayed open and survived. No federal money required.

Factory: Make sure workstations are 6 feet apart and all workers wear masks and practice social distancing and COVID hygiene norms. Where distance separation is not possible, perhaps change sequencing or shifts where things are done. Or the half face respirator solution. Perhaps you would need to reduce the workforce, but at least you wouldn’t be closing.

Laundry: This would be very easy to establish no touch interactions. Laundries should have never been forced to close.

Best Buy and other big boxes: Follow what is currently being done at Home Depot and Lowes or super markets. Limit guests in store, social distance, cleanliness, and masks. There is no reason Best Buy should not have been open all along.

Other examples: I could go on and on. Golf Courses, car washes, etc. I understand that “government” wanted to default to extra conservative for political fear that they might be blamed for death. Extra conservative meant choosing between essential and non-essential.

But over cautious and extra conservative is not how we won World War 2. We took risks. American was founded upon a great risk when we first settled here in the 1600’s. Risk is in our DNA.

It’s clear to me that we Americans were never given a chance to determine our own course of action. It’s a shame that so much damage will be the result of this whole pandemic and that so much could have been avoided if we would have just utilized what we had right here in our own backyard – The AMERICAN SPIRIT.

Abortion is an "essential" service in a COVID world

We now live in a world where “governments’” have made decisions that grossly, and in many ways potentially illegally, impact your basic American freedoms…stay in your homes and don’t talk to anyone except by phone. These draconian measures are being forced upon us all with the rationale that all lives matter. How many times have we heard a Governor say “if we save just one life due to COVID virus as a result of all of these measures, then it will have been worth it”. That is the daily theme for defending these military state type of measures that have been implemented all across the country. As this “martial law” style of America has evolved under the COVID fear, we have let “governments” decide what is “essential” and what is “non-essential” and have sheepishly complied. Look at the many examples from various States (Michigan being one of the worst) of what the government has deemed “non-essential”:

Hair cutting and styling

Boating

Going to the Doctor for a regular check-up

Elective surgeries which could include replacements of hips and shoulders as examples

Teeth cleaning and just about any dental work

Visiting your vacation home

Visiting with anyone outside of your household. Gatherings of any size.

Construction

Painting

Gardening

Fishing

Car wash
Church
The most ridiculous activity deemed non-essential: Protesting the lock down

The list goes on and on all under the umbrella of saving lives. But through all of this craziness, abortions are deemed essential. If it wasn’t such an obscene hypocrisy, one would actually think it is a joke. It just doesn’t make any sense. But as usual, defenders of the craziness say its all about “women’s health”. But what’s always missing from those kinds of responses is that “women’s health” issues (rape, incest, medical issues) only account for about 1% of the reason’s women get abortions. According to latest numbers, some 1 million abortions are performed annually in the US. So, on one side we have the voluntary killing of fetuses and the other side at the very same exact time shouting out how important each and every life is. This hypocrisy occurs while we destroy the world’s economy. Without getting into an abortion debate, it would be nice if we could at least agree that calling abortions an essential service during a total world lockdown to save lives just sounds ridiculous. And for those “late term” abortion (abortions right up to birth) states (New York, Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, Vermont, New Mexico, DC), surely the craziness couldn’t sound any crazier than allowing the voluntary killing of a fetus right up until the moment of birth. 

Double standard version 2.0

Am I the only one on the planet that can’t stand the double standard hypocrisy of our elected officials? Well I’ve talked about it before, but this time, this time above all previous, is so offensive that I just want to scream it out. Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, can’t we all agree that the Political Class (I refer to them as the Ruling Class) do not at all represent the people…at all!

What do I mean by represent the people? Ask yourself the following questions: Do our elected DC officials work for a business that needs to be successful, or if not successful, then the business dies (BK)? Do they or have they ever cut paychecks on a Friday? Do they have employees that rely on them to make good decisions?  Do they have strict budgets they need to abide by or does the money just fall from the sky like in DC? When times are tough does it affect them the same way as you? Are they from similar demographics or are they millionaires? Do they live in average neighborhoods? What about their education and previous jobs? Does their income reflect the average person’s pay in your state? Just about half of the 100 Senators in DC are millionaires. Does that 50% distribution sound the same as in your state based on the total population of your state? Footnote that the number of millionaires is especially interesting when considering the average pay of a Congressman is $176,000 per year. Most Senators come from a legal background. 55 US Senators are lawyers (55%). Is your state comprised of 55% lawyers? You get the point. At least half of our elected Senators are millionaire lawyers. The answer is: Our federal politicians might just as well be from another planet.

In addition to the above, Federal employees have a basket of benefits that the average citizen does not have. For example, Congress gets nearly 6 months off when including their out of session time and all of the Holiday days they are given. To be clear, Congress, our elected public servants) get every imaginable Holiday day off. One example you may have never heard of is Emancipation Day. Yep, they take that off also. And if it happens to fall on a weekend, then they just take it the following Monday. Sound good? Pensions are still provided to Congress with eligibility at 5 years. In addition, Congress people can participate in a fairly standard 401k style plan. Congress tried to exempt themselves from Obamacare and from my recent research it appears that they actually are using the ACA with certain reimbursements of some 72%. Congress receives many more benefits including annual staff allowances, furniture allowances, free travel, expense allowances, and free gym memberships for life.

But what’s really the point of this post is the CARES act that was just passed. These supposed leaders in Congress passed the biggest spending bill in the history of the world and yet through all of the process leading up to it and through its passage, they were never under any fear of job loss or cutbacks to themselves. Our Congress and its massive bureaucracy, was totally insulated from the real-world impact of COVID-19. The same people that can’t get anything done, didn’t have any downside or loss of job risk at all. How is it possible that a group of people can pass something that has no impact before or after passage on them? Congress jobs were never at risk. Their budgets and employees were not facing cuts. Nothing. So how can they truly pass something that doesn’t apply to them? Answer is they do it all the time. That’s the hypocrisy.

You may ask: “How could they have taken a step towards true representation?” They all saw this thing as it unfolded into the meltdown of the economy. Why wouldn’t they have done what every business leader does in a capitalistic free market environment? Take immediate pay cuts. Feel the pain of the people they represent. And it they didn’t get the CARES bill passed timely, take more cuts. It’s called “LEAD BY EXAMPLE”. Feel what your constituents act feel.

They should have been the FIRST ones to feel the impact of COVID-19. But the way it is, they are not impacted one bit. My understanding is an actual pay cut may not be possible due to Constitutional reasons, but obviously the money could be donated back to the CARES funding. I’m sure it could have been figured out. What about staff cuts and layoffs? Well they should have had to make staff cuts. Just like all the rest of the world is forced to do. What do they do? They went out on a limb and did a hiring freeze. How brave is Congress? Real sacrifice.

The bottom line is that our representatives don’t represent us. They represent themselves. And the bubble they live in excludes them from feeling the pain of the rest of the world. Their self-anointment as rulers of us automatically excludes them from being questioned. After all, they are more important than the rest of us!

One final point…for those Trump haters. There is one person in our government that puts his money where his mouth is and his name is Donald Trump. Trump donates 100% of his Presidential salary to various charities and has been doing so since day 1. I can’t think of any other “public servants” that can say the same.

Amazon? Where is Jeff Bezos?

For the record, I am an Amazon, and correspondingly a Jeff Bezos, fan. Contrary to how the radical left portray wealth as “Evil”, I actually believe that people that take risks, innovate, and create value that people are then willing to pay for, should be rewarded. The bigger the innovation, the greater the reward.  Capitalism driving innovation is what creates wealth and is why we have things like Amazon. Without the reward of innovation, then innovation would cease and the next Amazon would not be created. In the case of Jeff Bezos, it took years, but in the end his hard work and determination resulted in him becoming the world’s wealthiest person. And I am totally ok with that. Capitalism works. Bezos created innovation that has literally transformed the world. The way we shop, the way we save money, the access we have to products, has all been changed forever. And for the better. To have it the radical lefts way, you need to think about a world with no Amazon. Imagine not having Amazon today. Saying it a different way: Socialism doesn’t drive innovation…Capitalism does! The point of this is to recognize that Amazon is a transformative innovation and the person that invented it, should make a ton of money. Everyday we confirm that with our wallets by accessing Amazon to fulfill our needs. Pre COVID, Amazon had become an integral part of each of our lives. Saving us time, money, and convenience. You can’t deny it.

Then COVID comes along and low and behold Amazon becomes even more important in our lives. Our dependency on Amazon triples in the blink of an eye. With COVID shutting down the world, virtually all of our previous brick and mortar style choices for our retail needs are closed. Gone. And overnight Amazon explodes into the primary retail shopping market in the United States. Amazon has hired 100,000 people to deal with the increase. And two-day shipping is virtually non-existent due to the huge demand on Amazon to fulfill America’s needs. Leadtime’s are now 5 plus days for basic stuff. Amazon is on fire with more business than ever. Shipping companies are working 7 days a week. UPS, FedEx all report shipping volume greater than typical Christmas time shipping. The stock price for Amazon is a clear indicator of the growth of sales at Amazon this year:  January 2 = $1,898.01; February 2 - $2,170.22; March 12 = $1,676.60; April 16 = $2,380.

So, here’s the question: Where is Jeff Bezos?? The worlds wealthiest man has become wealthier as a result of COVID – 19. This year, YTD, Jeff Bezos personal wealth has increased by $23.6 billion. I would say the majority, if not all, of Americans have less personal wealth than they had at the start of the year. Check your 401k statements. You most certainly must be feeling the pain of losing money. Now I’m sure his wealth would have increased a certain amount this year even without COVID. So not all of the $23.6 can be attributed to COVID, but for sure the lion’s share of it has. So why under these circumstances wouldn’t the worlds wealthiest man, the person whom has made $23.6 billion during a pandemic wherein his company was a huge beneficiary of this tragedy, donate oh let’s say a billion dollars? A lousy billion dollars. The money has come to him basically as a gift of the pandemic and partially out of our government’s decision to virtually shut down all of Amazons traditional competition overnight. Did Bezos innovation have anything to do with our governments decisions to shut down virtually everything? But yet he is being rewarded for that.

Bezos not donating a significant sum of money to the COVID cause is about as close to criminal behavior as I can think of. I’m appealing to you Mr. Bezos: Please show the world you have a soul and a heart. Give some of the money to a good cause.

So, I’ve gone from a Bezos fan to a Bezos critic. I will continue however to be a hypocrite and begrudgingly use Amazon and thereby continue to fill Jeff Bezos pockets with my money.

After all we are in an Amazon world!!

CARES Bill passes via "unanimous consent" vote? Really?

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act also known as the CARES Act, was signed into law by President Trump on March 26, 2020. The largest spending bill (by far) in the history of the world was intended to address the economic fallout of the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic in the United States. At no other time, or place, in the history of civilization, has there been a spending bill of such magnitude. Whether you agree, or disagree, with the details of the bill, it was clear some form of government intervention was needed in order to avoid a complete short- and long-term collapse of our economy that might go on for years and years. So, one would think that given the gravity and importance of the bill, that we would actually follow the Constitution to get it passed. Or at least we would acknowledge openly that for emergency reasons only, we were going to ignore the Constitution this one time.

But what really takes the cake on the issue of passing the bill was two events that led up to the passage and the two widely different responses. And why the Democrats always seem to get the better of the Republicans on major issues.

Everyone remembers the weekend before when Nancy Pelosi swept into DC to virtually overturn the work that had been agreed upon in the Senate. Pelosi wanted to put her stamp of spending ideas unrelated to COVID on the bill and was willing to stop the process for several days all the while everyone involved was declaring how critically important it was to provide relief to the economy. She held up the Senate approval for 4 days. And while she didn’t get everything she wanted; she did accomplish a lot in adding Christmas ornaments to the tree of spending. The ultimate backlash against Pelosi for interfering for 4 days was fairly minimal and most people have already forgotten and moved on. Keep in mind, that while she was causing the delay, she had not ordered Congress back in town to prepare for their ultimate vote that she knew had to come right behind the Senate vote. So finally, the Senate conducts a roll call vote and the bill passes 96 to 0. Politically speaking, the republicans gave Pelosi a “pass” on her interference and she, nor the Democrats, really didn’t suffer any political damage.

Now move on to the House. Once the bill moved to the House, and since Pelosi had “blessed” it, it was assumed that somehow the House would immediately pass the bill using a “unanimous consent” style vote and that would then move the bill to the President. To be clear, a vote by unanimous consent is not consistent with the Constitution. Low and behold, one loan Republican House member from Kentucky questioned the voting process. Tom Massie wanted a roll call vote which would have necessitated Congress to travel into the capital to make the vote. He asked this on Wednesday March 25 and was immediately vilified by both parties for being anti-American and so on. Trump even got involved in the name calling. Massies’ political career is probably over. Ultimately, he was bullied into agreement and the House passed the bill by “unanimous consent” (unanimous yay and nay voting as a body). The result was that this Congress passed the largest spending bill in the history of civilization without adhering to the Constitution and the one person who questioned it (for a few hours) suffered irreparable political damage while Pelosi held it up for 4 days and got a pass. Republicans piled on Republicans with the same energy as Democrats who had to be laughing the whole time. Result: Political victory to Democrats.

Now I’m not saying the vote should have been taken any differently because the circumstances frankly made it so. But Pelosi had a lot to do with the circumstances (her delays and her lack of calling congress in). And in the end, the Republicans got out maneuvered by the crafty democrats.

Shouldn’t we as a country at least want the Constitution to be followed. And when its not, shouldn’t we at least acknowledge that widely? I think it comes down to the politicians covering their own butts. Shouldn’t we at least call all of Congress out for not handling the vote in accordance with the Constitution? Since there are no recorded votes on the CARES bill, no one can take the blame for a negative result. And conversely, if everything goes great, Congress can take all the credit for a positive result.

You would think that at least this bending of the rules should be mentioned by the media. “LARGEST BILL IN THE HISTORY OF RECORDED CIVILIZATION PASSES WITHOUT FOLLOWING CONSTITUTION”. It’s not that I disagree with what happened, it’s that it deserves more than a flippant toss into the trash can of thought. After all, what happens on the next important vote?

Ironic COVID twist

Ironic twist of fate or is it a tragedy?

Bernie may actually get what he's wanted all along....

Without getting into the merits, or criticisms, of our government’s actions in dealing with Covid by implementing a near total lockdown on our economy including a stripping of many of our freedoms which have resulted in the literal total destruction of our economy and perhaps the changing forever of the United States as we have known it, it is interesting to note that once we get to the other side (and we will), there is a good chance this country will look more like a Sanders version than Bernie ever imagined. Socialism may already be here...and in a big way.

Consider this: 

1)    In a short 3-week timeframe, 25 million plus Americans have instantly become totally dependent on government as represented by new unemployment applications.  That number is growing and could soon exceed 50 million. The experts are forecasting 20% which would equal approximately 32 million. In the blink of the eye 32 million people became instantly dependent on government.

Does anyone really believe that the economy will return to normal within 3 months of the so-called “restarting” of things? More likely, we will see a very slow and measured attempt at getting things back to normal. The government is clearly projecting those thoughts each day by discussing a phased and/or regional approach with social distancing guidelines in place for extended periods of time long after the so called "turn on" event date. You can count on the basic wage concept being right around the corner as the "needed" solution to mass unemployment.

2)   Included in the CARES bill is forgiveness of some college debt and deferring of payments. Next step full forgiveness of college debt coupled with free college for all.

3)   Coming right along with the economics of a shutdown, is healthcare. We have already moved closer to government healthcare by creating a semi-government solution to healthcare as it relates to the Covid virus. Many of the costs that pre Covid were the responsibility of the individual insured have now moved to the insurance companies and then onto the government for reimbursement resulting in a quasi-government insurance solution.

Our government is doing what they do best...Spend money they don't have or spend someone else’s money. This is the one thing democrats and republicans can agree on during crazy times. Who spends the most can say they did the most to help Americans. But are they helping? It's a race to spend the most with no political will to tamp spending now during these "unprecedented" times. Unfortunately, this drunken spending pattern only creates more dependency.

All of this leads to a larger government with a larger (and growing) body of Americans dependent on that larger government. And get ready for runaway inflation and the horrible impact that will have on everyone. Government dependency will grow even faster as basic needs cannot be met. In the end Bernie may get his wish sooner than he ever could have done it as President. 

Let’s hope not!!